As we will see below, these insights have indeed taken shape in the procurements already made, and further developments will most likely follow. Based on the information made public and our experience so far, force development can be summarized and assessed along a few general principles and characteristics:
• Its goal is to create a modernly equipped, high-mobility and fast-reaction all-armed force capable of rapid and effective intervention, even in several locations, with information and decision-making superiority, relying on professional, contracted and voluntary reserve staff, to carry out operations, within national and allied frameworks.
• As a result, in the 2030s the Hungarian Defense Forces will be able to guarantee the security and sovereignty of Hungary, on the one hand, through credible deterrence based on its national capabilities, and on the other hand, within the framework of allied collective defense (enjoying its security guarantees and contributing to its strengthening), as well as in international peace support operations, thus contributing to the stability of the international system.
• A systemic approach is applied in planning from the individual fighter to the brigade level, and in terms of the ability to cooperate between branches, specialized teams, and weapons systems in both the human and technological dimensions.
• Capability-based force planning takes place.
• Where possible, the procurement of “product families” is preferred in the case of weapon systems.
• Lifecycle planning takes place in terms of costs and operational maintenance.
• A process-based approach is applied and the integrated implementation of procurement, production, maintenance, research, development and innovation with the expansion and development of the domestic military industrial base takes place.
• The establishment and maintenance of the national production and supply base in some highly important military industrial segments is considered as a national economic development measure.
• Acquiring and combining “incoming” (new, even still under development) state-of the-art and future technologies into new products (such as the Lynx IFV and Gidrán MRAP) has become a practice to develop next-generation military technology with the eventual option of international sales of the new products.
• The “networked” development of the defense industry in the region is a fundamental goal (through German, Czech, Austrian, Hungarian, Turkish cooperations and acquisitions).
• Strengthening regional cooperation within Hungarian initiatives (such as HQ MND-C and R-SOCC2 ) is a goal.
2 HQ MND-C: Headquarters Multinational Division – Central; R-SOCC: Regional Special Operations Component Command.
THE PHASES AND DELIVERABLES OF THE ZRINYI PROGRAM
The most significant Hungarian military development program of the 21st century was formally launched in 2017 (hence the original designation “Zrínyi–2026” used during the first years of the program). Its second phase will certainly cover the 2026–2032 period – matching NATO’s current defense planning cycle –, but will also look forward to 2036, the end of the next ten-year national planning cycle. Based on the events of recent years and the announced medium- and long-term development plans, these two large phases can be further divided into five smaller stages following the planning logic of “program budgeting” (planning – programming – financing) as follows:3
• First phase (2016–2026):
• Planning and preparation: 2016–2018
• First stage of implementation: 2018–2023 (medium brigade)
• Second stage of implementation: 2023–2026
• Second phase: 2026–2032+
•Third stage of implementation: 2026–2028 (heavy brigade)
•Long-term developments (2028–2032+)
Within the first phase, the planning and preparatory work of the program took place between 2016–2018, the basis of which was certainly a comprehensive assessment of Hungary’s security environment, an analysis of military threats and challenges requiring a partly military/national defense response. Since a national security and/or military strategy was not formally adopted by the government until 2020/2021, the initial government/national defense assessment is not publicly known. But the two strategic documents highlight in retrospect the clear ideas and goals of defense modernization. These not only established the cornerstones of the Zrínyi Program, but also defined the tasks of the economic, societal and technological
subsystems of national defense for the following years in the broader spectrum of military development. We can assess that the NSS and NMS subsequently formally “codified” strategic tasks already under realization.
The specific plans for the development of the HDF were mainly carried out in close cooperation of the HDF Command (including the Chief of the Army Planning Group), the National Armaments Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the Military National Security Service, the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of Innovation and Technology, in an elaboration process that was completely closed to external observers. In the period until roughly 2018, the first military technology procurement and defense industrial development decisions were undertaken, the first agreements were concluded, and then, following the early agreements, deliveries also began. These steps – as we will see below – had been supported by a
dynamically expanding defense budget.
The first stage of the implementation of the Zrínyi Program both in terms of procurements and defense industrial investments can be placed roughly between 2018 and 2023, the planning endpoint being the achievement of the operational capability of the medium brigade earmarked to NATO collective defense by 2023. Providing the forces for the brigade structure, strengthening national defense capabilities and interoperability with allies, the military modernization that serves these purposes and the integration of new assets into the force structure arethe main tasks until then. In this phase, the procurement and delivery of military equipment began in several capability development projects of the air force (for
example, H145M helicopters, Zlin training aircraft), in the case of heavy equipment of the ground forces (Leopard-2A4 training tanks, PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers) and through the modernization of personal equipment (small and light arms). In this period, kick-starting an Airbus factory in Gyula producing helicopter propulsion parts, the assembly and production lines of handguns in Kiskunfélegyháza, the Lynx IFV factory in Zalaegerszeg and the production lines of Gidrán MRAPs in Kaposvár took place. This five-year period lays the foundation for the expansion of military industry production and the partial integration of German and Hungarian military land forces industries. The Hungarian military industry portfolio was expanded to include two foreign military industry companies (Hirtenberger Defense Systems, Aero Vodochody) as well.
The second stage of implementation falls between 2023 and 2026, when the remaining batch of the major military equipment that was previously contracted for and not purchased off-the-shelf will be manufactured and delivered. Examples include Embraer KC-390 military transport aircraft, L-39NG aircraft, Airbus H225M helicopters for the air force, Leopard2-A7+ tanks and Lynx IFVs for the ground forces, etc. In the light of the currently visible planning, the Hungarian defense budget meets the NATO expectation from the beginning of the period, namely it reaches the level of 2% of GDP already in 2023. The end of this phase can be considered the creation of the heavy brigade offered to NATO and the achievement of its operational capability in 2028. Following the arrival of the military equipment, international cooperation will also intensify – primarily with Germany in the 2023 rotation of the
NATO Reaction Forces and through the creation of the German-led EU Battle Group in 2025. These larger formations may enable the Hungarian units, mostly rearmed
with German technology, to increase their interoperability and, in the medium term, even their ability to integrate at the subunit level with the Bundeswehr. In the meantime, according to the plans, production will begin at all new military industrial companies – in addition to those mentioned above, for example at the ammunition and explosives factories in Várpalota – first to meet the needs of the Hungarian Defense Forces, and then hopefully also for export purposes. Research and development activities will begin in several technological areas – mainly in the field of combat vehicles, their defense systems and drone technology – so that the upgraded military equipment would become an even more attractive product on the international arms market.
The second comprehensive phase of the Zrínyi Program, as well as the third stage of its implementation, will begin in 2026. The process aimed at establishing the heavy brigade and achieving its operational capability will continue until 2028 with the delivery of previously ordered military equipment, and through the training of the personnel and conducting military exercises. The year 2026 can be the cut-off point not only because this was the endpoint of the original ten-year planning, but also because the national defense leadership must make another strategic decision about the continuation in 2026 at the latest, when the current Gripen leasing contract expires. Considering the already contracted Gripen software modernization and the extraordinary need for resources for a potential replacement type (especially F-35) in addition to already running programs, the retention and further modernization
of Gripen equipment seems more likely now.
Finally, after 2028, long-term developments and – depending on resources and the requirements of the security environment – even further quantitative expansions may take place for the equipment types already in service. The second half of the decade will be a period of “fine-tuning” for the operation of modern equipment and systems, cooperation between units in national and international frameworks and the deepening of interoperability, with regards to possible first operational roles. By the end of this period, defense industry production should be running smoothly, and the first innovation results should be apparent, while allied cooperation increases research and development in the field of emerging and disruptive technologies, at least autonomous systems, cyber defense and in the application of artificial intelligence. Finally, filling the expanded force structure and the related training
tasks are the biggest human resources challenges facing the Hungarian Defense Forces until the end of the 2020s.
3 This division of the program is solely the subjective opinion of the author based on the functional interpretation of the program, not announced formalized stages.
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY RESOURCES: DEFENSE SPENDING TRENDS
By the time the strategic drivers triggered the planning of comprehensive defense modernization in the 2010s, the HDF had to face the grim effects of residual funding for two decades: lost capabilities (artillery, armored vehicles) and the calculable obsolescence of some large weapon systems at the end of their lifecycles (essentially all Soviet/Russian manufactured helicopters). As Figure 1 shows, nominal defense spending remained practically flat between 2004 and 2015, with the 2008/2009 financial crisis taking a heavy toll.

In 2014, the Hungarian defense budget was HUF 54.5 billion (or 0.83% of GDP), 17.5% lower than in 2004, the year of EU accession. In the trend outlined above, 2014/2015 was the turning point, which, in addition to the change in Hungarian security perception and the improvement of the economic situation, was also reinforced by the incentive that at the Newport NATO summit all member states made a political commitment that in the next ten years they would increase their defense spending in the direction of the 2% of GDP expected by the alliance. The Hungarian budget jumped in 2015 with an initial annual increase of 14.74%, and to maintain the momentum of the process, a government decision extended the
planned period of growth until 2026, by which time the new goal was to reach 1.79%, calculated with an annual GDP growth of 0.1% (Csiki Varga – Lázár 2021: 3). Again, the
target date of 2026 was no accident – it represented the defense planning horizon of the Zrínyi Program, which had already been under planning at that time. Finally,
the significant resource requirement of the Zrínyi Program was to be covered by Government Decree No. 1283/2017, bringing forward the target date of reaching the 2% defense spending level in relation to GDP to 2024. Moreover, the government set the goal of maintaining this level from 2025 onwards.
In accordance with these goals, a significant increase in resources was allocated in 2016 (16.29%) and 2017 (34%). The solid political commitment to strengthening defense capabilities was also proven by the fact that, even in 2020–2021, when the coronavirus epidemic caused an economic shutdown and another extreme recession, the increase in defense spending continued unabated. It is worth keeping in mind that the large-scale modernization programs and investments already underway in 2020 could only have been stopped with great loss and damage, especially because the purchases were also connected with targeted industrial development in six clusters, and economic damage and loss of trust from partners would have also resulted in the probable loss of restarting, so we consider this decision to be rational even under the given dire circumstances.
The increasing trend of Hungarian defense spending has therefore remained dynamic: in the seven years between its lowest point (2014) and 2020, it nominally almost tripled, and based on the 2021–2023 budget laws, another 213% increase is expected in just two years. The increase in resources is absolutely justified: the comprehensive modernization of military technology, the related development of the defense industry and innovation, and the planned expansion of the contract and reserve personnel, while raising salary levels to remain a competitive employer, require an extraordinary abundance of resources.
The national defense portfolio of the 2023 budget, announced on July 28, 2022, allocated 1,642 billion forints to the Ministry of Defense to cover national defense, including the financing of military modernization programs, as well as sport as a new element of the Ministry’s policy portfolio. Thus, the sports portfolio takes HUF 149.940 billion out of the gross sum, so the value of the actual 2023 defense budget will be HUF 1,492.06 billion based on current plans. This still represents a year on-year increase of 48.75% compared to 2022 (Csiki Varga, 2023: 8–9). The growth will therefore remain with us in the coming years, to a great deal as a constraint arising from sealed purchases (insofar as we wish to finance the contracts already concluded), and it will also be fueled by the forced extra financing needs of personnel expenses.
4 The source of data are national Budget Acts and Accounting Bills.
A FACAL POINT: GERMAN-HUNGARIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION
In line with the previously outlined strategic goals and planning guidelines, the German–Hungarian defense cooperation projects that are at the core of Zrínyi Program in many respects, clearly highlight the synergies and intersections of force development, arms modernization, defense industrial production and international military. As we have assessed earlier:
When looking forward in a broad sense, it is very likely that in the foreseeable future the HDF will be the most interoperable partner of the Bundeswehr in the Central and Eastern European region, which will make Hungary an indispensable partner for Germany, if Berlin seriously aims to scale up its efforts with regards to European defense cooperation. Conversely, Hungarian defense policy will inevitably rely and depend on Germany for decades to come. Although this partnership – just as in the case of bilateral economic relations – will always remain asymmetrical (due to the basic characteristics of the two countries’ relationship) and more vital from a Hungarian perspective, it still means that German–Hungarian defense policies will be deeply intertwined. (Etl – Csiki Varga, 2021: 67)
Depending on how deep and elaborate a cooperation framework is – what we call pooling and sharing of capabilities –, it can range from simple joint operations through the ever more complex tasks of creating joint formations to in-depth military industrial cooperation, even to the joint production, research, and development of military technologies. In Hungary’s case, Germany has become the best example: the “level” of creating joint formations (previous embodied in the 2014 creation of the V4 EU Battlegroup with Central European allies) will be reached within the German-led EU Battlegroup (2024) and the NATO Response Force (2025). The most profound joint activity, the joint production, research, and development of the
defense technology, is founded upon the activities of Rheinmetall, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW), and the established German–Hungarian joint ventures.
Such ventures with an international background and Hungarian companies should play a role in the development of combat vehicles, with the inevitable role of Rheinmetall in many areas. Rheinmetall Hungary will manufacture Lynx combat vehicles in Zalaegerszeg, and the nearby ZalaZone off-road vehicle test track will be able to support the testing. The value of the investment related to the establishment of the Lynx factory was already estimated at HUF 70 billion in 2022. “The investment, including suppliers, will create more than half a thousand jobs”, said László Palkovics in 2020 about the project’s role in stimulating the economy (Trautmann, 2020).
Other development opportunities for the Lynx include the adaptation of the Israeli Rafael company’s Trophy active defense system to combat vehicles, and the further development of the turret weapon.
It is also possible to forecast the adaptation of Rheinmetall’s next-generation 35-millimeter anti-aircraft machine gun system, the Oerlikon Skyranger, to Hungarian combat vehicles, which is a combination of a 30-millimeter automatic machine gun, guided missiles and a high-energy (20 KW) laser. Another large group of combat vehicles will be the Gidráns produced in Kaposvár in cooperation with Turkish company Ejder Yalcin and Rheinmetall. A joint German–Hungarian development program with Rheinmetall and KMW for a next generation automated 8x8 hybrid-drive IFV, based on the German Boxer, may also be started in Kaposvár. If manufacturing goes ahead, this new vehicle could even be the successor of BTR-
80s for the second half of the 2030s. The University of Óbuda also conducts related military industry research in Kaposvár. The development of autonomous operation would also rely on the possibilities of the ZalaZone track in Zalaegerszeg, and Rheinmetall’s Mission Master XT, for example, could be the “technological model” (Huszák, 2021).
CONCLUSIONS
In 2023, the goals and modernization programs of the Zrínyi Homeland Defense and Armed Forces Development Program are reaching the end of the first implementation stage. With sustained political commitment and currently abundant financing, the conclusions we can draw for this first stage are rather optimistic: the comprehensiveness of the program is well reflected in the across the-board procurements and the defense industrial projects kick-started in these first few years, with a good chance of continuing according to the plan. Fielding the medium and heavy brigades earmarked for NATO in the next five years and ensuring high interoperability within joint formations with the German Bundeswehr will be the next milestones for assessing results.